Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. showcased his alpha status in the Colts' offense, tallying 109 receptions for over 1,100 yards on 156 targets in 16 games, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. Despite limited touchdown production, Pittman Jr. commanded a 33% air yards share and a 30% target share, boasting a high floor. With potential for improved touchdown variance in 2024, especially if Anthony Richardson elevates the offense, Pittman Jr. stands to benefit. The addition of Adonai Mitchell in the draft could enhance the overall offensive output without significantly impacting Pittman's target share.

Pittman has proven to be one of the safest picks in fantasy drafts over the last three years, with WR14, WR21, and WR22 finishes. Despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew for most of the year, Pittman finished with his usual efficiency ranking 23rd in YPRR and 24th in FD/RR while gobbling up the volume (ninth in targets, fourth in target share). The Colts will remain a middling neutral pass rate team this year while pushing the pace envelope. Pittman should finish with another solid WR2 season, but he could offer more upside if he can ever break out with even reasonable touchdown numbers. Pittman hasn't had more than six receiving touchdowns over the last three years. He only spiked it four times last season despite ranking ninth in red zone targets. Pittman has a WR1 season in him, and I won't bet against him unleashing it in 2024.